Knowing NBA rotations and matchups is a different skill from knowing how an event contract works.
Before you trade on Fanatics Markets or any other platform, you should understand four things: what a contract pays, what it costs, how much you can lose, and how you could exit before the game or season ends. This guide walks through each one with a hypothetical example.
Key takeaways
- An event contract is a Yes or No position on a defined outcome. One side settles at $1.00 per contract and the other at $0.
- The $1.00 is a gross payout. Your profit is what remains after the purchase price, trading fees and taxes.
- You can lose the full purchase price plus fees. Exiting before settlement depends on the prices available at the time.
What an NBA event contract trades
An NBA prediction market poses a question with a yes-or-no answer. For example: will Team A win the championship this season, or will Team B win tonight’s game? You choose a side by buying a Yes contract or a No contract, and Fanatics Markets’ risk disclosure treats these as two separate contracts.
When the contract settles, the holder of the side that matches the result receives $1.00 per contract, and the opposing side receives $0.
The CFTC’s prediction markets explainer describes the same structure. The payout is fixed, usually at $1. Traders who predict incorrectly lose what they paid, and taxes and fees affect everyone’s returns.
Every contract has its own rules, so check four things before you buy:
- the event definition
- the source that determines the result
- the expiration time
- how a canceled or postponed game is handled
Fanatics Markets notes that a canceled, postponed or disputed event may be settled under fallback provisions, and the result can differ from what you expected.
For sports contracts, an official result can also change after the fact because of replay reviews, stat corrections or vacated results.
How to read a price
Contract prices fall between $0 and $1.00. A Yes contract priced at $0.40 costs 40 cents and pays $1.00 if the outcome happens. The price shows what traders are willing to pay at that moment.
Fanatics Markets’ disclosure cautions that event contract prices may not reflect the actual probability of an event. Treat a price as the market’s current estimate, not a forecast you can rely on.
The Fanatics Markets board shows prices as a percentage, alongside what a $100 position would pay, instead of as cents per contract.
The math is the same. A side quoted at 40% shows a $250 payout on a $100 position if correct, before fees. Quotes include a spread, so the Yes and No sides can add up to slightly more than 100%.
Fanatics Markets groups its NBA prediction market listings into Game Lines, Player Props and Futures. Moneyline, spread and total markets are available for the full game, for halves and for quarters.
This setup differs from a traditional sportsbook wager. According to the CFTC, regulated exchanges and intermediaries do not take a side of the trade. You can hold a position until settlement, or try to exit it earlier.
Follow one hypothetical contract from purchase to settlement
The team, prices and results below are hypothetical, not current Fanatics Markets quotes.
Fees follow the Fanatics Markets fee disclosure effective September 2, 2026, which charges $0.02 per contract for contracts priced from $0.20 to $0.80. Taxes are excluded.
Purchase. You buy 10 Yes contracts on the Team A championship question at $0.40 each. That costs $4.00, plus $0.20 in trading fees, for $4.20 in total.
Correct outcome. Team A wins. Each contract settles at $1.00, so you receive $10.00. After subtracting the $4.20 you paid, your profit is $5.80 before taxes.
Incorrect outcome. Team A does not win. Each contract settles at $0, and you lose the full $4.20.
Exiting before settlement. Fanatics Markets’ risk disclosure says you exit a position by taking an offsetting position, which means buying the opposite side of the same question.
- Suppose that midseason, No contracts are available at $0.45. Buying 10 of them costs $4.50 plus $0.20 in fees.
- You now hold both sides, and one side always settles at $1.00. Your 10 pairs therefore return $10.00 whatever happens.
- Your total outlay is $8.90: $4.00 + $4.50 + $0.40 in fees. That leaves $1.10 before taxes.
Prices and availability can change quickly. The disclosure warns that order books can be thin and spreads wide, and that liquidity in sports contracts may deteriorate sharply around the events they cover.
Professional investors check liquidity conditions before committing money, and the same check applies to a small event contract position.
An injury or trade can move prices in either direction. There may also be no offsetting contract available at a price you would accept.
| Scenario (10 Yes contracts at $0.40) | Total cost incl. fees | Amount received | Result before taxes |
| Correct outcome, settles at $1.00 | $4.20 | $10.00 | +$5.80 |
| Incorrect outcome, settles at $0 | $4.20 | $0.00 | -$4.20 |
| Exit by buying 10 No at $0.45 | $8.90 | $10.00 | +$1.10 |
Decide whether Fanatics Markets fits your needs
Fanatics Markets is part of the Fanatics family of businesses, alongside Fanatics.com, Fanatics Collect and Topps, and it leads with sports. Beyond basketball, its markets cover crypto, politics, culture, the economy and companies.
If you are comparing it with Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings or FanDuel, you can weigh each platform on the same points below.
Eligibility. Fanatics Markets requires users to be 21 or older and US residents. Its availability page lists 22 states and four US territories, so check that your location is supported. Access is based on geolocation.
If you open a position in a supported state and then travel somewhere unsupported, you may not be able to manage that position.
Contract rules. Before you trade, read the listing’s event definition, resolution source, expiration time and cancellation terms.
Total cost. Trading fees range from $0.00034 to $0.02 per contract bought or sold, and they are generally highest near $0.50. The fee is totaled across your order and rounded up to the next cent, so a single-contract order may carry a $0.01 minimum.
Deposits by debit card, Apple Pay, PayPal or Venmo can carry a fee of up to 2%. ACH deposits are free, and there is no fee for withdrawals to one of your payment methods.
Account controls. You can set daily, weekly or monthly deposit limits. Lowering a limit takes effect immediately, while raising or removing one takes 48 hours. The platform also offers:
- session time limits
- timeouts of 3 to 365 days
- self-exclusion for a minimum of one year
Keep in mind that a deposit limit caps what you add to your account. It does not prevent losses on money already in it.
Legal changes. Sports-related event contracts are the subject of ongoing legal challenges. They could be modified, suspended or ended in your jurisdiction with little notice.
Before you trade
Event contracts can lose the full purchase price plus fees, and knowing basketball well does not make a trade profitable. The CFTC suggests trading only with money you can afford to risk after living expenses and savings are covered. If you are new to event contracts, track one contract’s quoted price for a few days and work out the cost, payout and fees on paper before risking money.